FX MARKET REPORT 26.11.2020

GBP/USD rallied as high as the mid-1.3390s on Wednesday, but has since eased off back to close to 1.3380. The pair is eyeing a test of highs set on Monday at 1.3398, ahead of a test of the psychologically important 1.3400 level. The UK Finance Minister Rishi Sunak’s effort to tame the biggest budget deficit since world war two couldn’t disappoint the Cable buyers the previous day as the US dollar index (DXY) dropped to a fresh low since September 01. Not only the downbeat data but risk-on mood also negatively affected the greenback on Wednesday. EUR/USD renews three-month highs near 1.1940, benefiting from a broadly weaker US dollar amid dismal US economic releases. The spot is gaining 0.18% on the day. The EUR/USD 1.15-1.20 range resistance is at risk as hopes for 2021 recovery outweigh the grip of COVID-19 restrictions on the region and likelihood of the European Central Bank (ECB) Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) and Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTRO) easing, per Westpac.  “Last week’s block of the EC’s vaunted Recovery Fund, and its 7yr Budget, by Poland and Hungary may be seen as more of a frustration than risking any failure to implement the Fund and Budget. However, it places further pressure on ECB to enact larger-scale policy easing through its highlighted recalibration of their PEPP and TLTRO facilities. Guidance on the scale of recalibration will no doubt be provided into the Dec 10th ECB meeting.” The Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 91.892, falling to its lowest level in more than two months. Volumes are limited with the U.S. on holiday to celebrate Thanksgiving. USD/JPY fell 0.1% to 104.34. AUD/USD inched up to 0.73664, near its highest since September, while NZD/USD edged up to 0.70036, near its strongest level in over two years. Both currencies are considered guides to risk sentiment due to their close ties with the global commodities trade.

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