FX MARKET REPORT 18.01.2021
GBP/USD is below 1.36. While bears push sterling to oversold conditions, Britain’s rapid vaccination campaign and optimism about the Biden era may prompt a bounce. Support below 1.35 awaits at 1.3455, the 2020 trough, followed by 1.33, a stepping stone on the way up in late December. Some resistance is at 1.3545, which was a cushion early in the year. It is followed by 1.3610, a support line from last week. EUR/USD loses further momentum and drops to 1.2060. The better tone in the dollar keeps weighing on the pair. ECB’s Lagarde participates in the EuroGroup meeting. The upside momentum in EUR/USD run out of steam in the 1.2350 area earlier in the month. The subsequent corrective downside breached already the 1.2100 mark and appears to still have further legs to go. Despite the corrective downside, the outlook for EUR/USD remains constructive and appears supported by prospects of a strong recovery in the region (and abroad), which is in turn underpinned by extra fiscal stimulus by the Fed and the ECB. In addition, real interest rates continue to favour the euro area vs. the US, which is also another factor supporting the EUR along with the huge long positioning in the speculative community. The dollar index steadied after touching a one-month high and last traded at 90.857, its highest level since Dec. 21.