Pound weakens near the end of the week amid risk aversion. GBP/USD could post the lowest weekly close since April. Decisive ECB policy action to back up the new policy framework could trigger a fresh EUR sell off next week at a time when other major central banks (BoE & Fed) are moving closer to raising rates. A failure to act would provide some relief for the EUR. The risks though for next week are higher that there is a more lasting impact on EUR given this meeting follows the updated monetary policy strategy review and ECB President Lagarde has clearly indicated that changes will be made, at least to guidance and depending how explicit those changes are will determine the impact. Any shock or surprise is likely to imply a EUR downside move. EUR/USD is likely to remain in a consolidation phase between 1.1770 and 1.1895 in the next 1-3 weeks. The dollar edged higher on Friday, logging its largest weekly gain in a month, after upbeat retail sales data boosted expectations that economic growth accelerated in the second quarter.
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