FX MARKET REPORT 08.01.2021
MHRA has approved Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine for use, as reported by Reuters. The GBP/USD pair was up 0.25% near 1.3600. GBP/USD eyes 1.36 as the US dollar remains firmer on the session. Cracks key averages on the hourly chart, RSI stays bullish. Fresh Brexit also remains a cause for concern ahead of NFP. The national lockdown announced on January 4 will ensure a double-dip recession. MUFG forecasts -3.8% GDP in Q4 and -2.7% in Q1 2021. Assuming the current lockdown serves to alleviate capacity pressures on hospitals and vaccination roll-outs accelerate sharply, the hit to the economy in Q4 and Q1 can reverse quickly. The 2 million per week government target for vaccinations will be tough to achieve and we can only expect a gradual reversal from full lockdown from March onwards. MUFG Bank now expect the Bank of England (BoE) to cut rates into negative territory at its next meeting on February 4. GBP will therefore under-perform this year. EUR/USD adds to Thursday’s losses well below 1.2300. The dollar’s rebound keeps weighing on the pair. US Nonfarm Payrolls, jobless rate next of relevance in the docket. The Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 89.812, bouncing off a near three-year low following a slide of nearly 7% in 2020. USD/JPY was up 0.1% at 103.90, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD was up 0.2% at 0.7783.