FX MARKET REPORT 06.05.2021

GBP/USD: Critical support at 1.3880 appears at risk on BOE, Scottish elections according to Confluence Detector. Sterling ticked up against the dollar yesterday as a poll showed Scotland’s main pro-independence party was unlikely to win an outright majority in Thursday’s election, undermining its hopes for a referendum on separating from Britain. The Scottish National Party (SNP) wants a majority in the devolved parliament to demand another referendum, although British Prime Minister Boris Johnson reiterated that he will not grant one. Policymakers at the Bank of England meet today where it will publish its May Monetary Policy Report. Analysts however believe it is probably too early in the economic recovery cycle for the BoE to announce a reduction of its bond-buying scheme, let alone raise interest rates. Euro area growth forecast at 4.3% in 2021 and 4.1% in 2022. The dollar hovered near a two-week high overnight, consolidating ahead of a key U.S. jobs report that may provide clues on when the Federal Reserve will dial back monetary stimulus. The greenback has rebounded from a one-month low over the past week, swung by U.S. economic data that has largely supported the case for a rapid recovery from the pandemic, with traders weighing whether a lift in inflation may force the Fed’s hand earlier than policymakers have so far suggested.

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