FX MARKET REPORT 10.05.2021

GBP/USD gained strong follow-through traction for the second straight session on Monday. The Scottish election outlook provided some relief to the GBP and remained supportive. A modest USD rebound – amid an uptick in the US bond yields – did little to hinder the move. EUR/USD pushes higher and advances to new highs near 1.2180. The weakness around the dollar props up the upside in spot. Yields of the German 10-year Bund climb to the -0.20% area. The dollar languished at around 2-1/2 month lows on Monday as investors bet that rising inflation would erode the currency’s value as the U.S. Federal Reserve maintains its loose monetary policy. The five-year breakeven inflation rate – which measures expectations of inflation five years out – reached its highest since April 2011 on Monday. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate – a measure of expectations of inflation in 10 years time – rose to its highest since March 2013. A weaker-than-expected jobs report on Friday helped persuade market participants that the Fed would keep rates low and continue purchasing assets, even if inflation rises. The United States created a little more than a quarter of the jobs that economists had forecast last month and the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked higher. In recent years, rising inflation expectations have helped the dollar because investors have assumed interest rates would be raised in response to higher prices. The dollar index was last at 90.205, up 0.06% on the day, having earlier hit its lowest since Feb. 25.

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