FX MARKET REPORT 03.03.2021

UK Finance Minister Rishi Sunak will be in the global stoplight as he will deliver his second annual budget for the British economy. While the Chancellor of the Exchequer has already signalled readiness to do “whatever it takes”, traders would seek clues as to how the present freebies will be curtailed in the future to determine immediate GBP/USD moves. GBP could edge below last week’s low at 1.3890. In view of the lacklustre momentum, any further decline is unlikely to threaten the major support at 1.3850. The rebound has scope to extend but any further advance is likely limited to a test of 1.3995. The next resistance at 1.4035 is unlikely to come into the picture. Support is at 1.3925 followed by 1.3890. EUR/USD has been recovering amid temporary market calm. But, expected strong US figures, stimulus progress and America’s vaccine ramp-up are set to boost the greenback, Economists expect the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index to print 58.7 points in February – prolonged growth in America’s largest sector. The Manufacturing PMI smashed estimates earlier in the week with 60.8. ADP’s employment figures are forecast to show an increase of 177,000 private-sector jobs. While the old continent is struggling to get people to take the AstraZeneca jab, the US is ramping up the rollout and also production. Merck agreed to produce Johnson and Johnson’s single-shot inoculations and President Joe Biden stated that every American could be offered a vaccine by the end of May. Euro/dollar continues suffering from downside momentum on the 4-hour chart and trades below the 50, 100 and 200 Simple Moving Averages – which are all converging around the 1.2110 level. The dollar index slipped to 90.971 after dropping back from a nearly one-month high overnight.

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