FX MARKET REPORT 05.01.2021

GBP/USD trims the previous day’s losses with eyes on April 2018 peak at  1.37 level. US dollar drops amid cautious optimism backed by virus  vaccine, Georgian runoff hopes. UK announced third lockdown, fears of  South African variant of COVID also loom. US ISM Manufacturing PMI, UK  virus updates and American politics will be the key. EUR/USD is holding  above 1.2250 but Commerzbank spots a negative divergence on the daily  RSI which warrants caution. Nonetheless, the pair still targets 1.2624,  the 200-month moving average, in the long-term. The Georgia Senate  runoffs on January 5, 2021, will determine the balance of power in the  Senate. The Senate is currently controlled by Republicans, who hold 50  seats to the Democrats’ 48. If the Democrats are able to win both  Georgia seats, the Senate would be tied at 50-50, with incoming Vice  President Harris becoming the potential tie-breaker in favour of the  Democrats.  According to economists at TD Securities, the USD could see  further downside momentum should the Democrats flip both Georgia seats.  The dollar index was at 89.733, but above Monday’s low of 89.415, seen  for the first time since April 2018. USD/JPY fell 0.2% to 102.92, after  dropping as low as 102.715 on Monday for the first time since March.

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