FX MARKET REPORT 08.01.2021

MHRA has approved Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine for use, as reported by  Reuters. The GBP/USD pair was up 0.25% near 1.3600. GBP/USD eyes 1.36 as  the US dollar remains firmer on the session. Cracks key averages on the  hourly chart, RSI stays bullish. Fresh Brexit also remains a cause for  concern ahead of NFP. The national lockdown announced on January 4 will  ensure a double-dip recession. MUFG forecasts -3.8% GDP in Q4 and -2.7%  in Q1 2021. Assuming the current lockdown serves to alleviate capacity  pressures on hospitals and vaccination roll-outs accelerate sharply, the  hit to the economy in Q4 and Q1 can reverse quickly. The 2 million per  week government target for vaccinations will be tough to achieve and we  can only expect a gradual reversal from full lockdown from March  onwards. MUFG Bank now expect the Bank of England (BoE) to cut rates  into negative territory at its next meeting on February 4. GBP will  therefore under-perform this year. EUR/USD adds to Thursday’s losses  well below 1.2300. The dollar’s rebound keeps weighing on the pair. US  Nonfarm Payrolls, jobless rate next of relevance in the docket. The  Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 89.812, bouncing off a near three-year low  following a slide of nearly 7% in 2020. USD/JPY was up 0.1% at 103.90,  while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD was up 0.2% at 0.7783.

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